The International Fertilizer Manufacturers Association (IFA) recently published report “Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2024 - 2028” provides information on the global fertilizer market in the medium term. The following is a summary of the relevant information contained in the report:

- The global fertilizer market has stabilised in 2023 and the first half of 2024, despite continued disruptions in commodity markets.

- The sector remains exposed to global risks spanning geopolitics, war, economics and climate. Macroeconomic factors remain highly influential, as inflation and high interest rates have reduced the borrowing power of manufacturers and farmers.

- However, fertilizer affordability has improved significantly in the first half of 2024, compared to the previous 18 months.

- Global fertilizer consumption in terms of nutrients is projected to increase by 8 percent between 2024 and 2028, from 203.6 to 219 million tonnes of nutrients. Specifically, N consumption will increase by 6 percent, while P2O5 and K2O consumption will increase by 8 and 10 percent, respectively.

- Global fertilizer production capacity is projected to increase by 10 percent between 2023 and 2028. N capacity will increase by 8 percent, P2O5 by 9 percent, and K2O by 19 percent.

- The regions where the greatest increase in N, P2O5 and K2O production capacity is expected between 2023 and 2028 are those with the lowest production costs, as can be seen in the following graph (N: East Asia, East Europe-Central Asia and West Asia - P2O5: Africa, West Asia and East Asia - K2O: North America, East Europe-Central Asia and East Asia).

- There are many investors who are interested in producing green ammonia, but the implementation of such projects is expected to remain marginal over the next five years.

- IFA estimates that by 2028 there will be an annual green ammonia production capacity of 2.8 million tonnes of N, equivalent to 1% of global ammonia capacity. Much larger volumes would be put into operation after this period.


The report “Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2024 - 2028” is available at the following link: https://www.ifastat.org/market-outlooks